The 2027 US economic outlook was recently discussed at a special seminar hosted by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) New York and the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KOCHAM). During the event, Goldman Sachs economist Pierre-Francesco Mei shared insights predicting that the US real GDP growth rate for 2027 will reach 2.2%, driven by steady consumer spending and an ongoing artificial intelligence investment boom.
Addressing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the economist explained that recent rate hikes were influenced by multiple inflationary pressures, including energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, the expansion of AI infrastructure, and tariff impacts. However, as these price pressures eventually ease, inflation is expected to cool down. The Fed’s tracked core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is projected to decline from the current 3% range down to 2% by the end of 2027.
Regarding the trajectory of the US dollar, the analysis suggests that the currency’s current strength will shift into a downward trend starting in the first half of 2027, maintaining a weaker stance through the end of the year in alignment with a dovish Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are expected to pose a minor downward pressure on housing, equipment investment, and durable goods consumption, while the labor market remains relatively stable without wage-driven inflation concerns.
