Rep. Young Kim, a Republican representing California’s 40th Congressional District, is leading in a newly redrawn district that was expected to become more favorable to Democrats. Despite the shifting political map, the district is still being classified as Republican-leaning, giving Kim a potentially favorable position heading into the midterm elections.
According to a recent survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, which polled 400 voters in California’s 40th Congressional District, Kim ranked first with 23% support. However, the race remains highly competitive. Fellow Republican Rep. Ken Calvert of California’s 41st District and Democrat Joe Kerr, a former president of the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, each received 22%, closely trailing Kim.
Another Democratic candidate, Korean American Esther Kim Barrett, received 14%. Meanwhile, 19% of voters said they remained undecided, leaving the outcome fluid and suggesting that the race could shift significantly as the campaign develops.
The election has become more complicated due to the impact of redistricting. Under California’s newly approved congressional map, passed through Proposition 50, parts of the existing 40th and 41st districts were combined, creating an unusual race in which two Republican incumbents are competing in the same district.
Calvert, a 17-term Republican veteran, is widely viewed as part of the pro-Trump MAGA wing of the party. After the newly configured 41st District absorbed more Democratic-leaning cities such as Downey, Norwalk, La Habra and Whittier, Calvert chose to run in the 40th District, where part of his previous support base remains. That decision has made him Kim’s most significant Republican rival.
The 40th District, however, still appears to lean Republican. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the district is rated Republican +6, meaning its recent voting patterns are more favorable to the GOP than the national average. The Cook PVI is a widely used measure of a district’s partisan tendency based on past election results.
While the overall polling gap between Kim and Calvert is narrow, Kim appears to hold a stronger position among Republican voters. Within the GOP electorate, Kim received 42% support, leading Calvert by 6 percentage points. Among voters who viewed both candidates favorably, Kim’s advantage widened further, with 54% backing her compared with 39% for Calvert.
Kim has centered her campaign strategy on cost-of-living issues, particularly inflation and the financial pressure facing middle-class families. She has emphasized that rising fuel prices are placing a heavy burden on working households and has argued that the problem stems not only from global instability but also from California’s fuel tax policies and other state-level factors.
The early polling suggests that Kim has an advantage, but not a secure one. With Calvert consolidating support among conservative voters and Democrats seeking to capitalize on the redrawn district’s changing demographics, California’s 40th Congressional District is likely to become one of the closely watched House races in the coming midterm cycle.
