Both races started with crowded fields, but recent polling suggests Republican candidates are gaining momentum. The governor’s race is increasingly shaping into a two-way contest, while the Los Angeles mayoral race appears to be developing into a three-way battle.
In both contests, there is a growing possibility that one Democrat and one Republican could face off in the November general election.
In the California governor’s race, eight candidates are currently competing. Republican political commentator Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of health and human services, are battling for the top spot.
According to a poll released May 28 by the Public Policy Institute of California, 23% of 1,707 adult voters said they supported Becerra. Hilton followed closely with 20%.
Although Becerra held a narrow lead in the latest survey, Hilton has been the candidate driving much of the race’s momentum since earlier this year. In 13 polls conducted during April, Hilton placed first seven times, while Becerra led in only three.
Hilton’s rise reflects growing fatigue among conservative voters with long-running Democratic control of state government. Democrats have held California’s executive branch since 2011. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican candidate for governor, has also remained near the top tier in several polls, suggesting broader dissatisfaction among some voters.
Becerra, meanwhile, had been polling in single digits earlier this year. But he appears to have benefited after former Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, once viewed as a strong Democratic contender, dropped out of the race following a series of sexual misconduct allegations.
The Los Angeles mayoral race remains more unsettled, with three candidates locked in a tight contest: incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, Republican candidate Spencer Pratt and Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman.
According to a Los Angeles Times poll released May 28, Bass received 26% support among 1,913 voters, followed by Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%. The results place all three candidates within the margin of error.
Pratt has emerged as one of the race’s most notable surprises. He placed second behind Bass in polls released by Signal Political on May 22 and Tavern Research on May 12, narrowing the gap with the incumbent mayor.
Raman’s candidacy may also be affecting the dynamics of the race. She is considered politically aligned with Bass on many issues and shares much of the same progressive voter base. Raman is also affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, a left-wing political organization.
As a result, some moderate and progressive voters may consolidate behind Bass to prevent vote-splitting. At the same time, voters dissatisfied with the existing Democratic leadership in Los Angeles could shift toward Pratt.
Pratt has sought to appeal to voters frustrated with City Hall by offering direct and aggressive policy proposals. Homelessness has become one of his signature issues. He has called for forcibly removing unhoused people from the streets and requiring them to undergo rehabilitation treatment.
Meanwhile, with election day approaching, Becerra visited Wilshire Adult Day Health Care Center in Koreatown on May 28 to meet with Korean American senior voters and ask for their support.
