President Donald Trump’s political calculations and Russia’s structural personnel problems are being cited as key factors behind the prolonged stalemate in the Ukraine war.
On May 5, Ian Bremmer, president of the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said during the Milken Global Conference that the Kremlin remains surrounded by aging officials who “should have retired long ago.”
“That is having a negative impact not only on the war, but on Russia itself,” Bremmer said.
His remarks suggest that Russia’s inner circle has become increasingly closed and dominated by older figures, limiting diverse perspectives and distorting policy judgment. Analysts say such a structure is one reason the war has dragged on.
Bremmer said an environment has formed in which Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to make sound decisions.
“When a country with vast territory and nuclear capabilities is in that kind of structure, it makes Russia unstable and pushes the war into a stalemate,” he said.
On the role of the United States, Bremmer said Trump is unlikely to walk away from the war easily.
He said Trump does not fully support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s position, but would also be concerned that cutting off support could lead to criticism that he failed to end the war.
For that reason, Bremmer said Trump is likely to continue moving between Putin and Zelenskyy in an effort to end the war on his own terms.
Experts say the combination of Russia’s internal power structure and U.S. political interests makes it unlikely that the war will end in the near term.
