Trump hints at North Korea nuclear talks, upping pressure on Middle East

While urging dialogue with Iran during a tour of the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump simultaneously threatened to cut off its oil exports if talks fail — signaling a return to his signature mix of pressure and engagement that could soon extend to renewed nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

During the tour, Trump urged dialogue with Iran but also warned that “If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure.”

At the same time, Trump declared a complete lifting of sanctions on Syria, where a transitional government has taken office, signaling a shift in policy. This approach of combining pressure and incentives to pursue short-term gains is characteristic of Trump’s strategy and offers implications for negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program.

‘Put your hands up where I can see them’

Speaking at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Riyadh on Wednesday, Trump said Iran “must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars and permanently and verifiably cease pursuit of nuclear weapons,” adding, “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump emphasized an openness to negotiations, saying, “I don’t like permanent enemies,” while maintaining a firm stance on the principle of Iranian denuclearization. Back in February, he had also emphasized the need for “verification” by saying he favored a “verified nuclear peace agreement” regarding Iran’s nuclear issue.

Supporting Trump’s hard-line stance, the U.S. State Department and Treasury announced successive sanctions on Iran.

While Trump said that he wants to avoid conflict with Iran, he also warned that if negotiations fail, the consequences will be severe, deploying a strategy that mixes hard and soft tactics.

Iran has also responded actively to Trump’s strong approach. A senior Iranian official reportedly stated Iran would be willing to dismantle all highly enriched uranium if the United States lifted sanctions and proposed a “nuclear enrichment joint venture.”

Previously, the United States and Iran held four rounds of high-level nuclear talks from April 12 to last Sunday under Oman’s mediation.

Hard and soft, sanctions a negotiation card

Trump’s approach to the Iranian nuclear issue, although with some variations, is likely to be similarly applied to future negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program. His first-term North Korea policy of “maximum pressure and engagement” aligns with this broader strategy.

In Nam-sik, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security and expert on the Middle East, noted in a report released April 29 that “Trump starts by declaring the option with the highest expectations and then gradually yields ground to lead advantageous negotiations,” adding, “He also employs a contrast effect strategy by alternating between positive signals and negative positions to confuse the other party.”

Unlike previous U.S. administrations, Trump is flexibly using sanctions as a negotiating tool. On Tuesday, he abruptly declared a lifting of sanctions on Syria, saying, “It’s their time to shine, we’re taking them all off.” A pro-West transitional government has taken power after the fall of the dictatorship in Syria.

The U.S. State Department and Treasury, which handle sanctions, were unaware of the decision, according to Reuters. It was reminiscent of the moment after the June 12, 2018, Singapore North Korea-U.S. summit when Trump suggested suspending joint military exercises with South Korea, catching the Pentagon off guard.

Analysts interpret this as Trump’s preference for top-down decision-making, pushing forward without a detailed plan on how to unwind decades-old sanctions on Syria — reflecting his self-perception as the ultimate expert.

Despite opposition from Israel, a key Middle East ally whose prime minister urged against lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump’s decision went ahead — underscoring his willingness to disregard allies’ concerns if they conflict with his goals.

Eyes toward North Korea

This negotiating style — swiftly removing obstacles when alignment is found, but going to extremes when it’s not — was on clear display in the Middle East. The 2019 Hanoi summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, where Trump walked out of talks and employed a “no-deal strategy,” is a prominent example.

Although Trump prides himself as a dealmaker, some analysts say his inability to quickly resolve issues like the war in Ukraine and a Gaza cease-fire has led him to pivot to the Middle East. Domestically, his aggressive trade war with China is increasingly viewed as a loss.

With pressure mounting, there’s growing speculation that Trump may revisit the North Korea issue, one of his signature achievements in his first term. Recently, Axios reported that the Trump administration is quietly preparing to resume dialogue with North Korea.

While comparing North Korea — which has already declared itself a nuclear state — to Iran, which has enriched uranium to near weapons-grade levels at 60 percent, may be difficult, a negotiation strategy that maintains a firm principle of denuclearization while offering bold incentives in return could be replicated.

“As Trump seeks quick diplomatic wins, he’s now moving on issues like the Iran nuclear deal and may soon return to the North Korea issue,” said Yang Uk, a research fellow at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “In facing North Korea’s push to engage the U.S. in arms control talks, South Korea must clearly uphold the principle of denuclearization and maintain its strategic grounding.”

BY PARK HYUN-JU [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]