The US midterm elections are just six days away, serving as both a referendum on Donald Trump’s second term and a crucial turning point for congressional power in the second half of his administration.
While many expect the Democratic Party to recapture the House of Representatives, the Senate race remains a razor-thin contest.
Hills, House Democrats poised to retake majority, Trump likely to stick to existing policies, Trust issues in the ROK-U.S. alliance, Communication with White House and preparation for next administration needed.
With the election results bound to bring shifts to President Trump’s governance and the 2028 presidential hopefuls, global attention is intensely focused. Amid diagnostic warnings from U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel that ROK-U.S. relations are experiencing ‘turbulence,’ the South Korean government is watching closely. How should South Korea view the U.S. midterms and prepare for the post-election landscape?
Dong-seok Kim, President of the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC), who has led grassroots voter movements in Washington, D.C. for nearly 30 years, noted in an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo on the 25th, “More important than how the congressional power map changes in this election is the fact that it marks the starting point of intense competition between the Republican and Democratic parties toward the 2028 presidential election.” He advised, “South Korea must meticulously manage the remaining two years of President Trump’s term while preparing for the post-2028 election U.S. landscape starting right now.”>
Kim emphasized, “Even if Democrats recapture the House in the midterms, President Trump’s tariffs and pressure for investment in the U.S. will not immediately disappear. Instead, South Korea must maintain a stable relationship with the current White House, closely cooperate with the new Congress’s trade and security committees, and initiate policy communication with the next generation of bipartisan leaders preparing for 2028 to prepare for a complex diplomatic environment.”>
The interview with Kim, who resides in New York, was conducted via Zoom on the 25th, with additional written answers provided subsequently.
“Senate is a Toss-Up Battle”
Q : How do you view the current race?
A : “I believe the House will see Democrats recapture the majority with a margin of around 15 seats, while the Senate will be a ‘toss-up’ battle where Republicans narrowly defend it 51-49 or 50-50. Battleground states in the Senate include Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Georgia and North Carolina are already leaning Democratic in the eyes of Republicans. But would states where Trump beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by over 10 percentage points in 2024 easily flip? In the 2016 presidential election, 2022 midterms, and 2024 presidential election, polls taken ten days prior differed vastly from actual results.”
Q : Democrats placed the ‘Affordability’ issue front and center. What is the biggest variable deciding voter sentiment?
A : “Economic and livelihood issues like cost of living and inflation are clearly moving voter sentiment. However, voters are currently blaming the entirety of the political establishment for their current hardships. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether the difficult livelihood economy will work entirely to the Democrats’ advantage. Ultimately, three variables will decide the outcome: whether cost-of-living burdens are linked to assessments of President Trump’s governance, shifts in voter sentiment in Republican strongholds like Texas, Kansas, and and Ohio, and whether MAGA (Make America Great Again) voters mobilize in battlegrounds.”
Q : Traditional Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida are shaking.
A : “This is a point to watch closely. We must look at how the shifts in voter composition and intra-party realignments appearing in this election will impact the 2028 presidential race. Particularly important is why some Latino voters who supported Trump in Texas and Florida in 2024 are considering other choices, and how much MAGA forces will mobilize in an election where Trump’s name isn’t on the ballot. Democrats must distinguish between mainstream progressives and radical Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). If Democrats win the House by a narrow margin, ideological turf wars between intra-party moderate pragmatists and progressives (DSA) could erupt over health insurance expansion, housing costs, corporate regulations, and policies toward Israel. How many seats progressives represented by the DSA secure and how much power they gain to push actual policies in the new Congress will be a focal point.”
“Trump’s Power Will Not Wane”
Q : Some analyze that if Democrats recapture the House, President Trump could fall into a lame-duck period.
A : “This cannot be viewed as an either-or question of a lame-duck period versus continued runaway rule. If Democrats control the House, they can use committees to investigate and audit the economic impacts of the administration’s tariff policies, the legality of immigration crackdowns, conflicts of interest involving the president and associates, and military operations and foreign policy, while also holding hearings. However, a change in congressional majority does not signify an overall weakening of presidential power. Trump can bypass congressional checks by utilizing executive orders and regulatory changes to continue existing policies. Even if Democrats secure both houses, overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber.”
Q : How should South Korea interpret the continuity of U.S. foreign policy?
A : “While Congress can check the executive branch through budgets and oversight, not all presidential diplomatic decisions require prior congressional approval. What matters is that even after the midterm elections, President Trump will continue to hold core policy decision-making powers regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, North Korea summit diplomacy, alliance defense cost-sharing, tariffs, and investments in the U.S. If the MAGA support base and organizations within the Republican Party continue to rally around Trump, his intra-party influence will see no major changes.”
Kim cautioned against the perspective that a Democratic recapture of the House majority would immediately allow the Trump administration to ease demands for U.S. investments or checks on China. He emphasized that South Korea must prepare a multi-layered diplomatic strategy, such as continuously managing direct communication channels with the White House while expanding cooperation utilizing the new Congress’s oversight and budgetary powers.
“Once Midterms End, It’s Practically Presidential Election Season”
Q : Ambassador Steel recently used the expression ‘turbulence’ regarding ROK-U.S. relations.
A : “I see current ROK-U.S. relations not as an alliance collapse or crisis, but as a trust issue surfacing during the process of readjusting alliance roles and mutual interests. In the past, security and trade could be managed separately, but now tariffs, investments in the U.S., advanced technology, U.S.-China strategy, and the role of U.S. Forces Korea are connected within a single package negotiation structure. Looking at issues one by one, cracks in North Korea intelligence cooperation are trust issues, wartime operational control transfer issues stem from differing views on the alliance’s role and future, and trade conflicts including Coupang are issues of rules and fairness. Although circumstances surrounding bilateral relations have changed drastically, perceptions viewing the alliance remain stuck in the distant past. The problem is failing to consult and adjust while trapped in obsolete cognitive frameworks.”
Q : What changes do you expect in ROK-U.S. relations after the midterm elections?
A : “Unilateral tariff policies could lose steam or create room for compromise due to U.S. judicial rulings or high-intensity congressional checks. Security issues are entirely different. China containment, supply chain reorganization for economic security, and changes in the role of U.S. Forces Korea are visions advanced by current U.S. Department of Defense Policy Undersecretary Elbridge Colby since Trump’s first term, which continued through the Joe Biden administration. Even if Democrats capture congressional power, the demand to participate in U.S. China containment and readjust alliance roles is a bipartisan stance and will not change significantly.”
Q : What diplomatic strategy should South Korea establish ahead of the latter half of Trump’s second term and the 2028 presidential election?
A : “2028 is not a distant future. It is the reality unfolding the day after the midterm elections. Once the elections end, both parties and presidential hopefuls will immediately set up camps and begin preparing for the next term. Taiwan and India are already infiltrating the policy-making stages of influential primary camps from both parties to steer things in directions favorable to their countries. Why is the Jewish lobby so powerful? Because they don’t just provide funds to U.S. politicians; they handcraft policy questions and answers into reports and place them directly into their hands. We, too, must proactively supply sophisticated policy packages regarding the ROK-U.S. alliance and East Asian strategy to presidential candidate camps.”
โDong-seok Kim (68)=Established the New York/New Jersey Korean American Voters Center in 1996 and formed the Korean American Grassroots Conference in 2013, leading the rights protection of Korean Americans and grassroots civic political campaigns. Notably, he led the adoption of the ‘Japanese Military Comfort Women Resolution’ in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2007. He has contributed to reflecting the voices of Korean American voters in U.S. congressional legislation and government policies by building a bipartisan network in Washington D.C. politics.
