So-called “orphaned voters” whose preferred candidates failed to advance from California’s top-two primary could become a decisive bloc in Rep. Young Kim’s reelection battle this November.
The redrawn 40th Congressional District will feature an all-Republican matchup between Korean American Rep. Young Kim and longtime Rep. Ken Calvert. Esther Kim Varet, a Korean American Democrat who finished third in the June primary, is now urging progressive voters to back Kim.
Varet told the Los Angeles Times that supporters have repeatedly asked which Republican they should vote for. Her answer, she said, is Kim — particularly “if we’re playing a kind of longer game.”
Her reasoning is strategic rather than ideological.
Calvert has served in Congress for 33 years and holds more seniority and influence within the Republican caucus. Defeating him, Varet argued, would therefore be more consequential for Democrats than defeating Kim. She also said a competitive race could force Republicans to spend more money in the 40th District, potentially diverting resources from other races where Democratic candidates have a realistic chance of defeating GOP incumbents.
The numbers suggest Democratic voters could matter.
In the June primary, Democratic candidates collectively received 42.9% of the vote. Calvert finished first with 34.9%, followed by Kim with 20.6% and Varet with 16.6%. If a substantial share of Democratic voters consolidates behind Kim, they could make the race significantly more competitive and potentially end Calvert’s three-decade congressional career.
Whether those voters will actually behave strategically remains uncertain.
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic redistricting expert who helped design California’s new congressional map, said voters left without a candidate from their own party frequently skip such races altogether. In previous same-party general elections, 35% or more of these “orphaned” voters have sometimes left the contest blank.
Those who do vote may rely less on ideology than on simpler cues such as a candidate’s race, gender, incumbency or local connections.
“Republicans might be able to tell the difference between a moderate Republican and a conservative Republican, but Democrats can’t tell the difference,” Mitchell said, explaining why voters often struggle to distinguish ideological differences between two candidates from the opposing party.
That uncertainty could make Democratic and independent voters an unusual wild card in the November contest.
The redrawn 40th District, covering parts of inland Orange County and Riverside County, was designed as a solidly Republican seat and brought Kim and Calvert — both incumbents — into direct competition after California’s congressional maps were redrawn under Proposition 50.
With no Democrat on the November ballot, the question is no longer simply which Republican can mobilize more GOP voters.
It may also depend on what thousands of Democratic voters decide to do when neither candidate represents their party.
