The California plastic reduction initiative faces significant hurdles as actual production cuts are projected to reach only one-third of initial expectations. This shortfall stems from the state drastically lowering the baseline metric used to calculate reduction targets.
According to a report by the LA Times on November 4, the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) finalized the baseline for single-use plastic usage at 1.03 million tons based on 2023 statistics. This is merely 35% of the 2.9 million tons initially estimated by the state in 2024, and 20% lower than the 1.29 million tons suggested by the industry last June.
Under California’s Single-Use Plastic Reduction Act (SB 54) enacted in 2022, the state is mandated to reduce single-use plastic usage by 25% by 2032. While the original baseline would have required cutting approximately 725,000 tons by 2032, the new baseline reduces the required cut to roughly 250,000 tons. The annual reduction per resident also drops from 37 pounds to 13 pounds.
The first 10% reduction target, set to take effect on January 1 of next year, will similarly drop from an initial 290,000 tons to about 100,000 tons.
A major concern is the accuracy of these new baseline figures. State officials acknowledged that some producers either failed to submit data or reported inaccurately. In fact, the new baseline was calculated using data submitted by only about half of the member companies in the industry association.
Conversely, the number of single-use plastic products produced, sold, and distributed in 2023 reached 22.2 billion, more than double the industry’s estimate of 10.8 billion from last June. This indicates that while the total product count surged, the overall weight decreased significantly.
Experts point out that the opaque data calculation methods could distort both the actual reduction impact and recycling rates.
Although the state plans to revise the baseline annually through 2030, the new figures will apply directly to the reduction goals starting next year. SB 54 aims to mandate that all packaging be recyclable or compostable by 2032 alongside reducing plastic usage, while placing waste management responsibilities squarely on producers.
