California primary races take shape as GOP candidates gain ground.
With California’s primary election just four days away, the contours of the state’s most closely watched races — the gubernatorial election and the Los Angeles mayoral election — are beginning to take shape.
Both races feature crowded fields, but Republican candidates have shown notable momentum. The governor’s race is increasingly narrowing into a two-way contest, while the Los Angeles mayoral race is shaping up as a three-way battle. In both elections, there is a growing possibility that one Democrat and one Republican will face off in the November general election.
The California governor’s race appears to be consolidating into a two-candidate contest. Among the eight candidates currently in the race, Republican political commentator Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services, are competing for the lead.
According to a poll released May 28 by the Public Policy Institute of California, 23% of 1,707 adult California voters said they supported Becerra. Hilton’s support stood at 20%. Although Becerra held a narrow lead in the latest survey, Hilton has been the candidate who has consistently driven the race since earlier this year. In fact, Hilton ranked first in seven of 13 polls conducted throughout April, while Becerra led in only three.
Hilton’s appeal among conservative voters is widely attributed to fatigue over long-running Democratic control in California. Democrats have held the state’s executive branch since 2011. The fact that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican candidate, has also remained near the top of the polls appears to reflect the same voter sentiment.
Becerra, meanwhile, was polling in the single digits earlier this year. But analysts say he benefited after Eric Swalwell, a former Democratic congressman and once a strong contender within the party, dropped out amid a series of sexual assault allegations.
The Los Angeles mayoral race remains uncertain and is taking shape as a three-way contest. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, Republican candidate Spencer Pratt and Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman are all making late pushes.
According to a Los Angeles Times poll released May 28, Bass had 26% support among 1,913 voters, followed by Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%. The race remains extremely tight within the margin of error.
The most notable surge has come from Pratt. He placed second behind Bass in recent polls released by Signal Political on May 22 and Tavern Research on May 12, rapidly narrowing the gap and gaining momentum.
Pratt’s rise appears to be partly tied to Raman’s entry into the race. Raman is considered a political ally of Bass, and their policy positions overlap in many areas. She is also affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, a strongly progressive political organization. As a result, moderate and progressive voters may consolidate behind the incumbent Bass rather than Raman, while voters disillusioned with the city’s Democratic leadership may shift toward Pratt.
Pratt has sought to appeal to voters frustrated with the political establishment by offering clearer and more direct policy proposals than Bass or Raman. One example is homelessness. Pratt has said he would pursue a hard-line policy of forcibly taking unhoused people off the streets and placing them in rehabilitation treatment.
Meanwhile, with primary day fast approaching, Becerra visited Wilshire Adult Day Health Care Center in Los Angeles Koreatown on May 28 to meet with Korean American senior voters.
