North Korea’s participation in China’s Victory Day ceremony highlights shifting diplomatic landscape

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet for the first time in Beijing on Sept. 3, when they attend China’s Victory Day ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan in World War II.

The gathering of the three leaders comes just after President Lee Jae Myung’s visits to Japan and the United States, where trilateral diplomatic cooperation between Korea, the U.S., and Japan took place. The North Korea-China-Russia summit is being widely interpreted as a revival of Cold War–style confrontation between the southern triangle of Korea, the United States and Japan, and the northern triangle of North Korea, China, and Russia.

Beijing and Pyongyang simultaneously announced on August 28 that Kim would attend the Victory Day event. At a press conference held at the Victory Day media center, Hong Lei, assistant foreign minister of China, named Kim immediately after Putin while listing the 26 leaders confirmed to attend.

While detailed schedules have not yet been disclosed, the announcement raises the possibility of not only bilateral talks but also a trilateral summit between Kim, Xi and Putin.

Xi’s decision to host Kim and Putin side by side at an event he has carefully prepared underscores China’s return as the central axis of a North Korea-China-Russia alignment, abandoning its earlier distance from what some analysts labeled the “rogue alliance” between Pyongyang and Moscow.

Facing heightened tensions with the United States across virtually all sectors — from tariffs to geopolitics — Beijing appears to have concluded that consolidating its traditional anti-U.S. partners serves its strategic interests.

For Putin, engaged in a standoff with Donald Trump over prospects for ending the war in Ukraine, the symbolism is also valuable. And Kim has strong incentives to move closer to Beijing: with his utility to Russia likely to wane after the war, economic ties with China are crucial to meeting his five-year economic and military development plan, which runs through the end of this year.

“China, under pressure from tightening encirclement, wants to demonstrate its influence over the Korean Peninsula, while North Korea seeks political propaganda by standing alongside the Chinese and Russian leaders and Russia needs to maintain its ties with China amid the war in Ukraine,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “Their strategic interests converged on the Sept. 3 Victory Day.”

Analysts suggest that Seoul’s closer trilateral coordination with Washington and Tokyo under the Lee administration may have factored into the North Korea-China-Russia decision to emphasize their bloc. With Korea-Japan ties no longer the “weak link,” Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang may see confrontation as a more effective way to pressure Seoul.

The Korean government had already learned of Kim’s planned participation through diplomatic channels before the Korea-U.S. summit. Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik said the development “should be interpreted as part of the same trend” that made the summit a success.

Kim Jong-un’s multilateral debut

For Kim, attendance at the Victory Day ceremony marks his debut on a multilateral diplomatic stage. While he has previously visited China, Russia, Singapore and Vietnam, those were bilateral engagements. By breaking with the precedent that supreme leaders avoid such multilateral settings, Kim is signaling greater diplomatic confidence, bolstered by Russia’s backing.

In addition to North Korea and Russia, leaders from Cambodia, Vietnam and 23 other countries are expected. For Kim, the event could serve to bolster recognition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. If Beijing reciprocates by sending a senior envoy to Pyongyang for the Oct. 10 Workers’ Party founding anniversary, Kim could showcase his domestic and international standing.

“Kim, who until now has mostly relied on official statements in state media, is stepping up as a main player, signaling his intent to actively shape the diplomatic stage,” said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader’s sister and a senior party official, suggested on Aug. 19 during a Foreign Ministry meeting that Pyongyang sees itself as the focal point of an emerging regional diplomatic stage.

Park Ihn-hwi, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said Kim’s first multilateral appearance is aimed at “securing legitimacy as the leader of a normal state and carving out space within the anti-Western bloc known as the Global South,” linking it to Pyongyang’s domestic narrative of treating South Korea as a separate, hostile state.

Seoul’s outreach put to the test

The development is a setback for the Lee administration, which had positioned itself as a “pacemaker” by offering dialogue to Pyongyang during Monday’s Korea-U.S. summit. Kim’s decision to side with China and Russia instead of responding positively to Seoul’s overtures suggests a further decline in prospects for inter-Korean dialogue or U.S.-North Korea talks.

Im Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, called Kim’s decision “a symbolic signal that reduces the possibility of improved inter-Korean relations or a U.S.-North Korea summit.”

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on August 29 in an appearance on local outlet Yonhap News TV that Seoul will “continue working closely with China and other relevant countries to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table,” stressing that “the ultimate goal remains denuclearization.”