Potential Conflicts Regardless of Election Outcome
Andrew Yeo, the Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, has warned that regardless of which party’s candidate wins a potential early presidential election following a successful impeachment, tensions between South Korea and the United States could arise.
โIf Democratic Party candidates like Lee Jae-myung win the election, some friction could emerge,โ Yeo said. โMy sense is that a Donald Trump administration would push allies, including South Korea, to do more to deter and confront China. And thatโs not the direction Lee Jae-myung may want to move in.โ
He further noted uncertainties regarding Leeโs stance on Japan. โWeโve heard Lee Jae Myung saying that he wants to work with Japan,โ he said. โHe wants to strengthen the US, Japan, Korea, trilateral, but I am sorry to say whether thatโs just the talking point now to capture the moderate voters, or whether he sincerely will move in that direction of continuing rapprochement with Japan.โ
Yeo added, โThere might be some issues under a progressive government with Korea-Japan relations and there may be some limitations, so I think that would lead to some friction with the U.S.โ
Challenges Under a Conservative Leader
Yeo also suggested that even if the impeachment is dismissed, allowing President Yoon Suk-yeol to return to office, or if a conservative candidate from the People Power Party (PPP) wins the election, tensions with the U.S. could still arise.
โTrump seems to want to engage with Kim Jong-un, which the PPP would likely oppose. That will be highly problematic,โ Yeo analyzed.
โIf the PPP tries to tell Trump that he shouldnโt engage with Kim Jong-un, I think Trump will simply ignore South Korea and attempt to make a deal with Kim without really consulting South Korea,โ Yeo said. ย โIf that happens, there could be a serious break in the alliance.โ
Regarding U.S.-North Korea negotiations, Yeo believes the same issues would arise under a Democratic administration in South Korea. โIf it was premeditatedโwhich the DP argues Yoon and his close associates considered for a whileโthen yes, thatโs concerning as a matter of trust,โ he said.
Impact of Martial Law Controversy
Yeo also suggested that even if the impeachment is dismissed, allowing President Yoon Suk-yeol to return to office, or if a conservative candidate from the People Power Party (PPP) wins the election, tensions with the U.S. could still arise.
โTrump seems to want to engage with Kim Jong-un, which the PPP would likely oppose. That will be highly problematic,โ Yeo analyzed.
โIf the PPP tries to tell Trump that he shouldnโt engage with Kim Jong-un, I think Trump will simply ignore South Korea and attempt to make a deal with Kim without really consulting South Korea,โ Yeo said. ย โIf that happens, there could be a serious break in the alliance.โ
Regarding U.S.-North Korea negotiations, Yeo believes the same issues would arise under a Democratic administration in South Korea. โIf it was premeditatedโwhich the DP argues Yoon and his close associates considered for a whileโthen yes, thatโs concerning as a matter of trust,โ he said.
About Andrew Yeo
Andrew Yeo is a political science professor at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. Specializing in Korean affairs, he has served as director of Asian Studies and as a senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation. He holds degrees from Northwestern and Cornell University.
BY YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]
